gekonate
0x4758b5b1351ebe9136934828525ac0a45710f17d
- Realised P&L
- $-88.25
- Volume
- $944.03
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $7.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.013 | $7.10 | −$42.90 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.439 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.53at 0.578Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?
- +$6.72at 0.598Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
- +$0.22at 0.821Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
- +$-1.00at 0.628Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
- +$-10.00at 0.060Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 09:06 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.0915038963 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 21:05 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3769999899 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 19:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.4389999966 | $50.00 |
| 04-19 12:22 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%? | BUY | 0.57783691 | $50.00 |
| 04-13 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $0.97 |
| 04-12 20:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $9.40 |
| 04-12 20:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $0.94 |
| 04-11 15:24 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |
| 04-11 14:54 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.0603116536 | $10.00 |
| 02-19 22:11 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $39.00 |
| 02-16 21:55 | Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? | BUY | 0.0398803589 | $10.00 |