0x4747B68cfD6c486AF54f3230b43bfa9F0867492d-1759007796489
0x4747b68cfd6c486af54f3230b43bfa9f0867492d
- Realised P&L
- $-484.16
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $235.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.524 | 0.861 | $164.19 | +$64.19 |
| Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? · Yes | 0.210 | 1.000 | $71.43 | +$56.43 |
| James Comey in jail in 2025? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| James Comey arrested by October 31? · Yes | 0.541 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.80 |
| Trump declares another national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.00 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Chiefs vs. Jaguars · Chiefs | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$194.00 |
| Will Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31? · Yes | 0.483 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.21 |
| NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| US strikes Iran by October 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.12at 0.515Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
- +$46.15at 0.520Dodgers vs. Phillies
- +$36.39at 0.216Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$34.75at 0.590Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- +$-0.31at 0.800Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 22:44 | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | BUY | 0.2099999989 | $132.21 |
| 10-24 22:44 | Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? | SELL | 0.944 | $47.18 |
| 10-08 02:05 | Will Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31? | BUY | 0.4835555548 | $96.00 |
| 10-06 20:29 | Chiefs vs. Jaguars | BUY | 0.6499999998 | $194.00 |
| 10-06 20:29 | Blue Jays vs. Yankees | BUY | 0.5899999953 | $50.00 |
| 10-06 20:29 | Dodgers vs. Phillies | BUY | 0.5199999958 | $50.00 |
| 10-06 18:17 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5240782871 | $100.00 |
| 10-06 18:15 | Another US military action against Iran before 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $90.48 |
| 10-06 18:14 | Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $220.52 |
| 10-06 18:14 | U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? | SELL | 0.3150017051 | $83.13 |
| 10-06 03:51 | Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $226.48 |
| 10-06 03:50 | Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31? | SELL | 0.066476 | $16.62 |
| 10-06 03:49 | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | SELL | 0.2291936667 | $206.27 |
| 10-06 03:43 | Trump declares another national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.479999999 | $95.00 |
| 10-05 22:15 | Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? | BUY | 0.2099999902 | $15.00 |