fengyong
0x474069695c19fa3b9d12f30ad67882c035c91d57
- Realised P&L
- $-2.38
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $26.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $14.41 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.480 | $11.86 | +$4.94 |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? · No | 0.963 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.78 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? · No | 0.962 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.17at 0.289Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
- +$0.62at 0.996Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.51at 0.750Giants vs. Rams
- +$0.33at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in March 2026?
- +$0.30at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:55 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.40 |
| 10-18 11:52 | Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999968 | $6.92 |
| 09-21 14:20 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9949998727 | $5.90 |
| 09-21 14:16 | Giants vs. Rams | BUY | 0.7399998816 | $1.50 |
| 08-04 09:29 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.50 |
| 08-04 09:28 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.2789999263 | $2.03 |
| 07-23 10:34 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.57 |
| 05-30 02:25 | Netanyahu out by May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $154.00 |
| 05-28 10:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $154.00 |
| 05-23 09:55 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $102.00 |
| 05-23 09:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.50 |
| 05-23 09:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? | BUY | 0.9989999818 | $52.00 |
| 05-13 09:39 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.00 |
| 05-08 13:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.00 |
| 04-30 09:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? | BUY | 0.998999002 | $1.00 |