444yl
0x47222823b2bd82ffc96cd9f4f3c93cdff64c0518
- Realised P&L
- $-31.97
- Volume
- $63.9k
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $116.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in September? · No | 0.995 | 1.000 | $33.00 | +$0.17 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $33.00 | +$0.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $33.00 | +$0.07 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.575 | $17.25 | +$3.75 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? · No | 0.893 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.96 |
| LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) · T1 | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.22at 0.025Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$5.92at 0.650Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?
- +$3.50at 0.650Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.55at 0.201Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
- +$2.25at 0.950Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 17:22 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $32.84 |
| 09-21 17:20 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.45 | $13.50 |
| 09-21 17:20 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $32.90 |
| 09-21 17:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.93 |
| 05-27 17:06 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.998999961 | $25.00 |
| 05-27 17:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? | BUY | 0.9969999815 | $22.00 |
| 05-27 17:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $55.00 |
| 05-27 17:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | SELL | 0.7 | $3.68 |
| 05-27 17:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 17:01 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $110.22 |
| 05-27 16:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 16:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.7399999778 | $6.00 |
| 04-30 03:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.98 |
| 04-30 03:16 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $32.67 |
| 04-30 03:16 | Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $65.41 |