randomnamegenerator
0x46fe2e766b06499ce0dfb443f2b9ebfa0ae6f970
- Realised P&L
- $-682.31
- Volume
- $64.7k
- Markets traded
- 220
- Open portfolio
- $266.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded220
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.378 | 0.295 | $226.55 | −$64.11 |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.007 | $18.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.294 | 0.285 | $12.11 | −$0.37 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.006 | $9.29 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$119.08at 0.769Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$116.27at 0.774Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$110.48at 0.420Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$106.40at 0.764Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- +$95.36at 0.829Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:07 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.996 | $458.09 |
| 11-01 18:39 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 18:38 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 18:38 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 10:33 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 10:26 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 09:06 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7299999966 | $50.00 |
| 11-01 08:57 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6999999977 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 07:59 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6699999911 | $30.00 |
| 10-29 21:11 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7899999984 | $229.25 |
| 10-29 21:11 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.32 | $214.45 |
| 10-29 21:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.32 | $13.82 |
| 10-29 21:10 | Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.74 | $0.87 |
| 10-24 00:36 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.359999998 | $44.13 |
| 10-24 00:36 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $44.12 |