0x46Bb632c0DB87a4De4Cd25DA88132dAFf7f6eF3D-1733830378160
0x46bb632c0db87a4de4cd25da88132daff7f6ef3d
- Realised P&L
- $-0.50
- Volume
- $6.5k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $15.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 22? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.993 | $15.71 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.82at 0.680Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$0.20at 0.991Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$0.15at 0.992Will Solana reach $180 in February?
- +$0.14at 0.994Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
- +$0.11at 0.993Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 18:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.80 |
| 10-17 03:01 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.43 |
| 10-10 08:32 | Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.995 | $19.00 |
| 10-06 07:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $13.90 |
| 10-03 17:50 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9979999973 | $18.70 |
| 10-01 16:27 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.995 | $17.90 |
| 09-29 18:26 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $11.00 |
| 09-27 03:52 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999632 | $13.57 |
| 09-26 11:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.995 | $15.20 |
| 09-25 05:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.50 |
| 09-22 08:32 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.00 |
| 09-20 05:18 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.00 |
| 09-13 15:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $14.00 |
| 09-07 08:58 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $30.00 |
| 09-02 18:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 5? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.00 |