Gluestick820
0x469ef6f4def91363be8363bb8ca1b54c129f354d
- Realised P&L
- $580.67
- Volume
- $71.7k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $591.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.401 | 0.400 | $548.30 | −$1.79 |
| Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.435 | $43.50 | +$18.50 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? · No | 0.094 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.36 |
| Terrance Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$502.90at 0.451Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$196.32at 0.677Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$83.58at 0.670Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$74.59at 0.846US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$32.67at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 10:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3994246991 | $525.00 |
| 09-15 10:27 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.52 | $330.19 |
| 09-15 09:40 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 09-15 09:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.52 | $15.60 |
| 09-15 03:55 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.52 | $405.48 |
| 09-15 03:55 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.567 | $28.35 |
| 09-14 22:21 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $276.60 |
| 09-14 12:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 12:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.66 |
| 09-14 12:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.0216741674 | $12.04 |
| 09-14 12:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.0503541913 | $6.82 |
| 09-14 12:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.74 |
| 09-14 12:32 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $248.98 |
| 09-13 21:19 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.9 | $764.92 |
| 09-12 23:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.87 | $375.61 |