Cerer
0x469d7e39e32bec2cf996bcd76a49df66a58c370b
- Realised P&L
- $-11.29
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $3.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.932 | 0.950 | $3.27 | +$0.06 |
| Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as Prime Minister of Thailand in July? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30? · No | 0.794 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.45at 0.620Will Bodo Glimt beat Maccabi TLV?
- +$1.81at 0.630Trump approval Up or Down this week?
- +$0.72at 0.650Trump wins the election but loses WI, MI, or PA?
- +$0.67at 0.750SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?
- +$0.19at 0.840Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 05:09 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.99 | $299.39 |
| 05-29 05:09 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $199.80 |
| 05-29 05:08 | Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $199.80 |
| 05-26 05:19 | Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $200.00 |
| 05-26 05:18 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.992 | $300.00 |
| 05-26 05:17 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $200.00 |
| 05-02 04:45 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $301.49 |
| 05-02 04:45 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.993 | $289.71 |
| 04-29 12:40 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.994 | $290.00 |
| 04-29 12:39 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $300.00 |
| 04-29 12:38 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $297.90 |
| 04-29 12:38 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $300.00 |
| 03-25 09:09 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.993 | $301.49 |
| 03-25 09:09 | Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.994 | $239.99 |
| 03-24 12:08 | Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.994 | $240.00 |