mikeu
0x4685d75e24570a50c11e7aa172d5ed785913fe25
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $68.1k
- Markets traded
- 6,935
- Open portfolio
- $24.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,935
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.03at 0.150Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?
- +$89.34at 0.175China-Vietnam trade deal before June?
- +$80.74at 0.100Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$38.20at 0.344Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$28.37at 0.511Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 4? | BUY | 0.12 | $4.64 |
| 07-02 11:03 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 3? | BUY | 0.12 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 11:03 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 3? | BUY | 0.41 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 3? | BUY | 0.18 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 3? | BUY | 0.44 | $5.00 |
| 07-01 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.061 | $0.61 |
| 07-01 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.15 |
| 07-01 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.06 | $4.44 |
| 06-30 07:26 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.22 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 07:26 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.04 | $3.76 |
| 06-30 07:26 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.25 |
| 06-30 07:25 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.00 |
| 06-17 07:25 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 07:23 | Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 07:22 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.6629199971 | $10.00 |