0x467A7B65689831d41E693a3daEFAc7C0896A7804-1773489805881
0x467a7b65689831d41e693a3daefac7c0896a7804
- Realised P&L
- $-1.66
- Volume
- $26.9k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $16.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 29? · Yes | 0.994 | 0.996 | $16.93 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.44at 0.971Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24?
- +$0.09at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 20?
- +$0.07at 0.975Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 5?
- +$0.01at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 08:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.994 | $16.90 |
| 07-03 06:56 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $8.04 |
| 06-22 07:53 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 05-19 04:12 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.84 |
| 05-11 08:09 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $7.47 |
| 04-25 04:17 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $8.19 |
| 04-23 08:17 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.99 |
| 04-22 09:08 | Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.007 | $9.73 |
| 04-21 08:28 | Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $9.68 |
| 04-20 07:44 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.84 |
| 03-17 08:41 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.968 | $614.68 |
| 02-28 16:34 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.978 | $23.00 |
| 02-12 01:00 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.975 | $22.94 |