0x4674fF805fB31bA6746B3a11695A03222297a266-1761557275041
0x4674ff805fb31ba6746b3a11695a03222297a266
- Realised P&L
- $-174.40
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $84.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.230 | $46.00 | −$52.00 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $38.16 | −$72.84 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$156.88 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$150.00at 0.250US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$47.67at 0.176Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$12.02at 0.389Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$8.89at 0.124Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$-16.10at 0.141Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 16:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November? | BUY | 0.49 | $31.11 |
| 10-25 16:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.79 | $23.70 |
| 09-04 13:03 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 08-26 16:24 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $11.40 |
| 08-26 16:08 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 03-02 02:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4299999988 | $156.88 |
| 03-02 02:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $100.00 |
| 03-02 02:49 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0950114286 | $33.25 |
| 03-02 02:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.2429859433 | $172.52 |
| 02-28 18:12 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.16 | $111.00 |
| 02-27 16:02 | US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 02-27 16:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.121 | $4.84 |
| 02-27 15:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 01-14 15:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $60.00 |
| 01-14 06:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $60.00 |