Falus
0x466a5c59a26b0ee6e0c35aa90dcf9c84ccac5102
- Realised P&L
- $-31.61
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $12.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No | 0.875 | 0.885 | $3.30 | +$0.04 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.855 | $1.99 | +$0.15 |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.920 | $1.95 | +$0.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.957 | $1.81 | +$0.09 |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? · No | 0.801 | 0.775 | $1.68 | −$0.06 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? · No | 0.930 | 0.855 | $1.54 | −$0.14 |
| Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.94 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.41at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$1.65at 0.530Cardinals vs. Guardians
- +$1.40at 0.677Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 16?
- +$1.28at 0.550Reds vs. Pirates
- +$1.14at 0.590Jets vs. Flames
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 11:33 | Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9199999811 | $1.95 |
| 09-09 08:28 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | BUY | 0.9299999668 | $1.68 |
| 08-24 09:22 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 24-30? | BUY | 0.8399999582 | $2.41 |
| 08-14 11:44 | Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by August 31? | BUY | 0.7699999552 | $1.89 |
| 08-07 09:08 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999772 | $1.65 |
| 07-31 09:53 | Will Chevron (CVX) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.0M? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.64 |
| 07-24 10:43 | Over $1.5M committed to the TownSquare public sale? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.63 |
| 07-17 06:51 | Weed rescheduled by December 31? | BUY | 0.8009999627 | $1.74 |
| 07-10 11:40 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699998348 | $1.58 |
| 07-02 14:22 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799998324 | $1.68 |
| 06-18 13:48 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 18? | BUY | 0.8799999568 | $1.63 |
| 06-12 12:16 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8879996775 | $1.63 |
| 06-04 18:29 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8289999431 | $1.56 |
| 05-29 18:18 | Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? | BUY | 0.7799999379 | $2.26 |
| 05-22 14:29 | Will the median home value in the US be between $432,000 and $434,000 on May 31? | BUY | 0.8899997595 | $1.85 |