0x465c9fe82a6585983764cf718768a1ba368c6e53
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 234
- Open portfolio
- $430.75
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded234
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 15? · No | 0.920 | 1.000 | $200.00 | +$16.00 |
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.180 | $137.52 | −$76.40 |
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.044 | $31.37 | −$109.63 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.135 | $30.24 | −$5.60 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No | 0.780 | 0.081 | $22.70 | −$197.26 |
| Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · No | 0.193 | 0.890 | $8.90 | +$6.97 |
| Brex IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.009 | $0.01 | −$0.08 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$151.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$659.03at 0.180Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$353.63at 0.240Will Ja Morant be traded this season?
- +$314.64at 0.250Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?
- +$220.59at 0.340Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
- +$217.62at 0.310Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 17:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $184.00 |
| 04-27 09:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $16.92 |
| 04-21 03:05 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $1.31 |
| 04-21 03:04 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $1.62 |
| 04-21 03:02 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.69 |
| 04-12 00:53 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? | SELL | 0.74 | $357.42 |
| 04-12 00:51 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? | SELL | 0.74 | $128.76 |
| 04-11 17:48 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | SELL | 0.78 | $691.86 |
| 04-11 13:34 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $352.95 |
| 04-11 11:46 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | BUY | 0.83 | $736.21 |
| 04-11 06:41 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.08 |
| 04-11 06:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.19 |
| 04-11 06:16 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.30 |
| 04-11 06:10 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.19 |
| 04-11 06:07 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.08 |