elephantpiglucky
0x4654d52423f0439b269509fab2143f6fce544cfe
- Realised P&L
- $-17.6k
- Volume
- $161.0k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $18.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.633 | $14.4k | −$1.1k |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? · No | 0.679 | 0.635 | $3.8k | −$264.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.865 | $12.11 | +$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-14.55at 0.707Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
- +$-8.1kat 0.670Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- +$-9.5kat 0.695Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 14:10 | Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.79 | $11.06 |
| 10-25 10:43 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.45 | $0.03 |
| 10-25 01:15 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.73 | $100.20 |
| 10-24 05:16 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.709 | $21.27 |
| 10-19 02:33 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.66 | $308.02 |
| 10-18 03:40 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.2k |
| 10-18 03:37 | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.6k |