alexsailing
0x4642e04b4a669d4192f6039a817dad475375d21b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $318.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.245 | $259.99 | +$79.99 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.009 | $58.17 | −$411.79 |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? · Yes | 0.382 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.00 |
| Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? · Yes | 0.516 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$900.00 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$640.53at 0.340Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14?
- +$29.88at 0.140Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
- +$-3.69at 0.130Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-18 12:56 | Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? | BUY | 0.25 | $54.00 |
| 01-14 23:10 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0895656944 | $50.00 |
| 01-14 19:21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? | BUY | 0.5 | $400.00 |
| 01-14 19:20 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0899820021 | $50.00 |
| 01-14 19:20 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0891327305 | $10.00 |
| 01-14 18:42 | Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? | SELL | 0.8464629556 | $1.1k |
| 01-14 18:26 | Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? | BUY | 0.3399999996 | $430.00 |
| 01-13 19:16 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? | BUY | 0.1099999973 | $35.00 |
| 01-13 19:15 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | SELL | 0.61 | $38.78 |
| 01-13 19:03 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1399999877 | $8.90 |
| 01-09 22:02 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? | BUY | 0.5299999997 | $500.00 |
| 01-09 21:05 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? | BUY | 0.2699999963 | $50.00 |
| 01-09 20:16 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.09022104 | $50.00 |
| 01-09 20:16 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0783345859 | $40.00 |
| 01-09 20:15 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1499999976 | $50.00 |