0x46299c4a802b966bc018ac3864e19D1365988541-1767683738667
0x46299c4a802b966bc018ac3864e19d1365988541
- Realised P&L
- $-421.71
- Volume
- $24.1k
- Markets traded
- 495
- Open portfolio
- $8.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded495
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.87at 0.283Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?
- +$32.48at 0.199Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?
- +$27.88at 0.642Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$20.41at 0.141Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
- +$18.88at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 01:30 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.59 | $7.67 |
| 11-02 01:27 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.95 |
| 11-02 00:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 11-02 00:03 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 11-01 06:29 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.06 |
| 10-31 05:20 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.35 |
| 10-30 14:37 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 10-30 04:03 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.20 |
| 10-30 04:02 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.18 |
| 10-30 03:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.38 |
| 10-29 08:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.88 | $3.52 |
| 10-29 08:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.998 | $20.46 |
| 10-29 04:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.20 |
| 10-29 03:35 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 10-29 03:01 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.16 |