2b45
0x4625e1854481dedc812dcfebd02dc7170dbf6fd8
- Realised P&L
- $-70.65
- Volume
- $102.8k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $35.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $29.17 | −$102.08 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 4? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.28 | +$0.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.26 | +$0.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 4? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.10 | +$0.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 4? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $1.10 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4? · Yes | 0.995 | 1.000 | $1.05 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.04 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.40at 0.005Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$5.70at 0.706Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$2.81at 0.974Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?
- +$1.20at 0.980Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$0.40at 0.984Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 10:17 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.09 |
| 08-03 10:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9989991826 | $1.10 |
| 08-03 10:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.04 |
| 08-03 10:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.26 |
| 08-03 10:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9949991629 | $1.04 |
| 08-03 10:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.28 |
| 06-26 15:00 | Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.08 |
| 06-26 15:00 | Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 06-26 14:59 | Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 06-26 14:57 | Will FOX One: Live News, Sports, TV be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.08 |
| 06-26 14:56 | Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 06-26 14:56 | Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 05-05 09:44 | Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.10 |
| 05-05 09:43 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.10 |
| 05-05 09:42 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of May 4 – May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.28 |