0x462105316ec35288364e7f9512fee3f17db2805c
- Realised P&L
- $-5.09
- Volume
- $78.53
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $12.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.855 | $3.11 | +$1.11 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.895 | $2.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.855 | $2.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.485 | $1.76 | −$0.24 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.722 | 0.464 | $1.28 | −$0.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.500Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.640Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
- +$0.92at 0.670Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:16 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 07:15 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7219999264 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 19:14 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:01 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:00 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:25 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:03 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 18:56 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 10:56 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 18:17 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |