townsendronald
0x461c8d55d1ac61db389b8404f804ce08428feb36
- Realised P&L
- $-46.24
- Volume
- $10.2k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $21.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on September 19? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.590 | $13.77 | −$2.10 |
| Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.515 | $7.86 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.52at 0.999Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$1.01at 0.900Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$0.34at 0.985Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
- +$0.32at 0.986OpenAI browser in July?
- +$0.21at 0.989Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:15 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.6799999949 | $15.87 |
| 09-17 23:59 | Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.5801666396 | $8.85 |
| 01-31 13:44 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.00 |
| 01-30 15:07 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.73 |
| 01-30 15:07 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.01 |
| 01-30 12:31 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.66 |
| 01-30 12:31 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.41 |
| 12-30 01:23 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.31 |
| 12-30 00:36 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.95 |
| 12-30 00:02 | Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.60 |
| 12-29 19:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999749 | $37.44 |
| 10-30 22:22 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $16.62 |
| 10-30 20:11 | Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.90 |
| 09-29 17:52 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.75 |
| 09-29 10:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.49 |