Anarcholibertaire
0x45e743899fc09fb79571b1fee7595f5f9ce3b76b
- Realised P&L
- $-29.90
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $48.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.009 | $22.04 | −$15.96 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.850 | $17.00 | +$13.60 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.003 | $9.23 | −$24.70 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.81at 0.160Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$5.00at 0.110Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$0.39at 0.130Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.10at 0.480Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
- +$-4.97at 0.340Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 13:22 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 04-23 00:53 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.57 | $17.81 |
| 04-09 07:05 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1400520021 | $5.39 |
| 01-21 11:25 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.011764729 | $5.00 |
| 01-21 11:24 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0089463221 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 11:39 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.013812291 | $10.00 |
| 01-18 13:39 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0158704967 | $12.00 |
| 01-18 13:36 | Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 13:31 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 12:45 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 01-18 12:39 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0072186791 | $10.00 |
| 01-18 05:12 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 05:08 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 05:08 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 05:05 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.016 | $11.00 |