PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

orzanovn

0x45dbbf4fed6c845f4e857edc6e744236501c8f65

Realised P&L
$-1.8k
Volume
$1.48M
Markets traded
286
Open portfolio
$3.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded286
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.0690.055$3.3k$848.52
Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes0.1230.000$0.00$614.91
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.3280.000$0.00$983.12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0440.000$0.00$87.61
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes0.6460.000$0.00$387.42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$34.84

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 12:31Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.07$350.00
04-09 22:31Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.549418$274.71
04-09 22:29Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.548514$548.51
04-09 22:28Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?BUY0.3205727$320.57
04-09 22:28Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5340646$267.03
04-09 22:27Trump out as President before 2027?SELL0.16$800.00
04-09 16:31Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?BUY0.8182139586$268.00
04-09 15:58Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?BUY0.75$74.25
04-09 15:57Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?BUY0.7294686477$144.84
04-07 20:36Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?BUY0.5565414752$168.34
04-07 17:59Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?SELL0.011$124.96
04-03 12:42Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?BUY0.008$40.00
04-03 12:37Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?BUY0.3$300.00
04-03 12:36Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.55$275.00
04-03 12:35Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?BUY0.2994252$149.71