orzanovn
0x45dbbf4fed6c845f4e857edc6e744236501c8f65
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 286
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded286
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.055 | $3.3k | −$848.52 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$614.91 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$983.12 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.61 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes | 0.646 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$387.42 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.332Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.546Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$562.33at 0.291US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$432.55at 0.910Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
- +$428.52at 0.065Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 12:31 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $350.00 |
| 04-09 22:31 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.549418 | $274.71 |
| 04-09 22:29 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.548514 | $548.51 |
| 04-09 22:28 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3205727 | $320.57 |
| 04-09 22:28 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5340646 | $267.03 |
| 04-09 22:27 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $800.00 |
| 04-09 16:31 | Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | BUY | 0.8182139586 | $268.00 |
| 04-09 15:58 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.75 | $74.25 |
| 04-09 15:57 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.7294686477 | $144.84 |
| 04-07 20:36 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.5565414752 | $168.34 |
| 04-07 17:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.011 | $124.96 |
| 04-03 12:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $40.00 |
| 04-03 12:37 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $300.00 |
| 04-03 12:36 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $275.00 |
| 04-03 12:35 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2994252 | $149.71 |