fi412
0x45c3355ac134bcd4caccc726e1c59814e8d042f9
- Realised P&L
- $-61.1k
- Volume
- $1.67M
- Markets traded
- 1,077
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,077
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.1kat 0.664French Open: Sabalenka vs. Swiatek
- +$6.0kat 0.797French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff
- +$5.5kat 0.768French Open: Musetti vs. Alcaraz
- +$3.9kat 0.341Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$3.1kat 0.698Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:26 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7969243728 | $98.00 |
| 10-31 06:07 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999965 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 06:07 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8080707179 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 06:06 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999965 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:23 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4602455539 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:22 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.808999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:21 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8089191067 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:20 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8089191067 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:20 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4540967409 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:18 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.808393704 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:18 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8083533162 | $100.00 |
| 10-30 07:53 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8395242689 | $150.00 |
| 10-30 02:04 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4845631999 | $100.00 |
| 10-30 01:58 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8303894974 | $100.00 |
| 10-30 01:57 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8309999988 | $100.00 |