smxnq
0x45a666b85580bec59c648aa7b601dceb8aa8315a
- Realised P&L
- $-55.67
- Volume
- $631.31
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $73.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.310 | $73.26 | +$31.10 |
| Will Greece win on 2026-10-04? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.81 |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.42 |
| Will Greece win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET · Up | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.16at 0.417Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
- +$0.31at 0.868Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
- +$-5.06at 0.232Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
- +$-15.67at 0.335Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET
- +$-26.00at 0.447Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 19:32 | Will Greece win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.1699999979 | $4.81 |
| 10-04 19:32 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $5.28 |
| 10-03 17:58 | Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.0229999998 | $1.42 |
| 10-03 17:57 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.89 |
| 09-30 20:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 19:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8599997764 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 19:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 09-30 19:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 19:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | BUY | 0.3099999857 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 19:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET | BUY | 0.3529411682 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 19:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4293893072 | $25.00 |
| 09-30 19:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | SELL | 0.01 | $0.23 |
| 09-30 19:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 19:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $12.38 |
| 09-30 19:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |