dggrfd4
0x4596bf56c1e5d8e811e71d6ba0eccc4b996312b1
- Realised P&L
- $46.36
- Volume
- $26.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $0.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration50.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 10? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$14.09 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$14.09 |
| Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5 · Over | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.50 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 22? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.50at 0.988Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- +$19.80at 0.500Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 22?
- +$13.96at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 10?
- +$13.93at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 10?
- +$13.25at 0.500Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 09:48 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 37°C on September 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.5k |
| 07-06 14:58 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 7? | BUY | 0.98 | $8.23 |
| 07-02 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 3? | BUY | 0.988 | $15.41 |
| 06-25 13:16 | Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) | BUY | 0.991 | $18.54 |
| 06-11 01:11 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9 | $6.66 |
| 06-06 02:23 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on June 8? | BUY | 0.96 | $11.96 |
| 05-30 04:58 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $6.89 |
| 05-22 00:50 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 22? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.90 |
| 05-14 12:53 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $10.34 |
| 05-11 01:40 | Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on May 11? | BUY | 0.951 | $17.42 |
| 04-13 07:35 | Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.988 | $3.5k |
| 04-13 07:33 | Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.988 | $6.9k |