0x4579c35768979ddf84ec2d6eaa20cd5bc5a8f2c7
- Realised P&L
- $0.91
- Volume
- $281.96
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $7.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.500 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.505 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.115 | $0.56 | −$1.44 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.500 | 0.125 | $0.50 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
- +$3.00at 0.400US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:21 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 18:42 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 10:05 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 23:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 13:26 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7099996829 | $1.50 |
| 09-09 00:36 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 9? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 08:35 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 20:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998807 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 10:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 20:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 12:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 03:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 17:29 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 09:02 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 23:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |