blintizaebal
0x4578c1c39f03ae5855e65212fbe735309d0c8d09
- Realised P&L
- $2.41
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $201.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31? · No | 0.966 | 0.964 | $48.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.984 | 0.978 | $47.32 | −$0.31 |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? · No | 0.962 | 0.936 | $46.65 | −$1.27 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.938 | $39.23 | −$0.77 |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? · No | 0.953 | 0.943 | $19.51 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.95at 0.981Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
- +$0.81at 0.940Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.950Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$0.58at 0.960Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.52at 0.953Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 13:34 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.965 | $48.25 |
| 04-10 13:09 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $19.84 |