NowaAI
0x4562231ad8653baedff7af069035bfa434adaa66
- Realised P&L
- $688.13
- Volume
- $1.22M
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $26.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.906 | $9.53 | −$0.34 |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.993 | 0.997 | $6.58 | +$0.02 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.982 | 0.983 | $6.53 | +$0.00 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.990 | 0.999 | $4.34 | +$0.04 |
| Tigers vs. Mariners · Mariners | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Yankees vs. Blue Jays · Yankees | 0.479 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.00 |
| Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) · New York Yankees | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets · Nuggets | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$372.13at 0.746Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?
- +$62.17at 0.590Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
- +$58.73at 0.620Will Everton win on 2025-09-13?
- +$44.42at 0.480Dodgers vs. Phillies
- +$42.42at 0.380Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 19:49 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999937 | $6.00 |
| 07-13 16:56 | Will Rosalía perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | BUY | 0.9935710759 | $7.87 |
| 07-13 16:54 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 14? | BUY | 0.96 | $8.28 |
| 07-04 09:08 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 4? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 21:37 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in May? | BUY | 0.9952582876 | $40.00 |
| 04-21 17:00 | Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | BUY | 0.9489999961 | $9.32 |
| 04-21 16:58 | Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999981 | $9.87 |
| 03-23 16:44 | Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9929999991 | $6.56 |
| 03-23 16:43 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.30 |
| 03-15 22:11 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $5.86 |
| 03-15 22:09 | Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.9829999983 | $8.10 |
| 02-25 22:11 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9819999982 | $6.53 |
| 12-04 17:15 | Is Earth flat? | BUY | 0.9979999919 | $62.00 |
| 12-04 17:15 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.93 | $59.27 |
| 12-04 17:15 | USDT depeg in 2025? | SELL | 0.9899251878 | $60.60 |