PolyBot

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Traders

FakeMichaelBurry

0x454ee1b0ac6583a4507added41337e7a99b7636d

Realised P&L
$-1.5k
Volume
$265.6k
Markets traded
25
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded25
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration95.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0110.007$782.29$344.21
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0240.024$507.68$2.31
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes0.1280.043$95.44$191.75
Xi Jinping out in 2025? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$162.14
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$49.15
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? · No0.1900.000$0.00$20.00
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$10.00
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1090.000$0.00$98.34
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$30.00
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00$10.00
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? · Yes0.4800.000$0.00$95.80
Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00$95.00
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? · Yes0.0140.000$0.00$10.00
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · No0.0600.000$0.00$100.00
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? · No0.2000.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-27 19:56Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY0.4799999979$45.80
06-27 19:54Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY0.4799999981$50.00
06-27 19:53Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?SELL0.24$48.00
06-26 20:43Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?BUY0.25$50.00
06-13 23:42Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.008$103.13
06-12 18:01Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1089999991$98.34
06-12 18:01Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.008$104.18
06-05 19:34Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?BUY0.014$10.00
04-06 20:29Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.014$406.60
04-06 20:29Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.0192675845$399.92
03-15 13:11Netanyahu out by March 31?BUY0.0589999994$95.00
03-10 11:26Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0236072209$1000.00
03-10 11:26Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0098837709$1000.00
01-13 21:47Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.0699999993$87.19
11-07 20:46Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?BUY0.16$10.00