FakeMichaelBurry
0x454ee1b0ac6583a4507added41337e7a99b7636d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $265.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$180.65at 0.517Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?
- +$9.08at 0.098Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$-0.81at 0.043Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$-4.22at 0.256Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?
- +$-7.12at 0.040Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 19:56 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.4799999979 | $45.80 |
| 06-27 19:54 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 06-27 19:53 | Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? | SELL | 0.24 | $48.00 |
| 06-26 20:43 | Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 06-13 23:42 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $103.13 |
| 06-12 18:01 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1089999991 | $98.34 |
| 06-12 18:01 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $104.18 |
| 06-05 19:34 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | BUY | 0.014 | $10.00 |
| 04-06 20:29 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.014 | $406.60 |
| 04-06 20:29 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0192675845 | $399.92 |
| 03-15 13:11 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0589999994 | $95.00 |
| 03-10 11:26 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0236072209 | $1000.00 |
| 03-10 11:26 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0098837709 | $1000.00 |
| 01-13 21:47 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999993 | $87.19 |
| 11-07 20:46 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |