Luckdawg
0x454b61c135e5475f7ea4dcbd437126ae8e748528
- Realised P&L
- $-170.67
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $177.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Texas A&M vs. McNeese · McNeese | 0.623 | 0.630 | $36.58 | +$0.38 |
| Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.435 | $21.75 | +$0.25 |
| Türkiye vs. France: O/U 5.5 · Under | 0.840 | 0.825 | $20.63 | −$0.38 |
| Will Armenia win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.805 | $20.13 | +$6.63 |
| Spread: France (-2.5) · Türkiye | 0.710 | 0.695 | $17.38 | −$0.37 |
| Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs · JiJieHao | 0.590 | 0.675 | $16.88 | +$2.13 |
| Stars vs. Wild · Wild | 0.570 | 0.555 | $13.88 | −$0.37 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 · Over | 0.450 | 0.445 | $11.13 | −$0.12 |
| Italy vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.420 | 0.415 | $10.38 | −$0.13 |
| Jets vs. Avalanche · Jets | 0.370 | 0.365 | $9.13 | −$0.12 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 · Over | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.83 |
| Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C · fnatic | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.20 |
| Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan · Martina Trevisan | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles · Seattle Mariners | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.63 |
| Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 · Under | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.09at 0.457Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe
- +$45.79at 0.537Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5
- +$41.02at 0.527Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5
- +$39.28at 0.547Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
- +$35.37at 0.447Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 17:18 | Jets vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.37 | $9.25 |
| 09-25 16:15 | Türkiye vs. France: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.84 | $21.00 |
| 09-25 16:07 | Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs | BUY | 0.59 | $14.75 |
| 09-25 15:45 | Stars vs. Wild | BUY | 0.57 | $14.25 |
| 09-25 14:56 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.43 | $10.75 |
| 09-25 14:54 | East Texas A&M vs. McNeese | BUY | 0.6567190197 | $25.00 |
| 09-25 14:51 | Will Italy win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.43 | $10.75 |
| 09-25 14:47 | Will Armenia win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.54 | $13.50 |
| 09-25 14:44 | Italy vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.42 | $10.50 |
| 09-25 14:43 | Spread: France (-2.5) | BUY | 0.71 | $17.75 |
| 09-25 14:42 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.45 | $11.25 |
| 09-25 11:46 | Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 09-24 21:21 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.43 | $10.75 |
| 09-24 10:12 | Spread: Schalke 04 (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5599999919 | $25.00 |
| 09-24 10:10 | Spread: Packers (-7.5) | BUY | 0.6199999945 | $25.00 |