0x453D27B0734893F40F90b296690BD62C9d7e6020-1767479144767
0x453d27b0734893f40f90b296690bd62c9d7e6020
- Realised P&L
- $-23.19
- Volume
- $986.08
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $16.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.36at 0.110Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$0.39at 0.720Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?
- +$0.32at 0.760Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
- +$0.11at 0.710Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$0.04at 0.890Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 16:55 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision? | BUY | 0.8399997035 | $2.72 |
| 07-29 16:54 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.74 |
| 07-29 16:53 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $2.04 |
| 07-29 16:52 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | BUY | 0.7849999785 | $3.11 |
| 07-29 16:48 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.91 | $3.00 |
| 07-29 16:47 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0869999272 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 16:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 05-11 14:26 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999555 | $2.00 |
| 05-11 14:05 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0889999599 | $2.00 |
| 03-04 18:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | SELL | 0.7909953827 | $1.10 |
| 03-04 18:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $0.98 |
| 03-04 18:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $1.01 |
| 03-04 18:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 02-05 19:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 02-05 19:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | SELL | 0.08 | $1.33 |