certifiedgroyper
0x453c7ca27fe4db0b2f3363c22d3347537e57efe1
- Realised P&L
- $13.56
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $210.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.981 | 0.973 | $61.03 | −$0.53 |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.960 | $58.69 | −$1.71 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.967 | 0.931 | $52.31 | −$1.99 |
| Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026? · No | 0.956 | 0.605 | $38.85 | −$22.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.59at 0.910Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?
- +$1.92at 0.950Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.49at 0.966Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
- +$0.69at 0.986Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
- +$0.60at 0.940Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-25 12:37 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 04-13 09:05 | Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League? | BUY | 0.9879999996 | $21.67 |