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0x4535d28650075c79b4c96b9f8b48347ad6174007
- Realised P&L
- $871.71
- Volume
- $68.5k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $747.54
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.152 | $269.31 | +$164.90 |
| Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.084 | $144.56 | +$31.32 |
| Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.267 | 0.585 | $122.86 | +$66.80 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.073 | $110.63 | +$35.96 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.491 | 0.365 | $60.59 | −$20.90 |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.265 | $23.60 | +$1.49 |
| Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.225 | $16.00 | −$0.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$326.82at 0.407Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?
- +$144.05at 0.740Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?
- +$118.00at 0.076Will Taylor Brown be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 6)?
- +$56.05at 0.393Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
- +$48.25at 0.066Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 23:39 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.053 | $1.59 |
| 10-08 23:39 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.075 | $2.18 |
| 10-08 23:39 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.053 | $0.53 |
| 10-08 23:38 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.053 | $5.04 |
| 10-08 23:38 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.053 | $5.04 |
| 10-08 23:38 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.054 | $0.54 |
| 10-08 23:37 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.053 | $1.06 |
| 10-08 23:36 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.68 |
| 10-08 23:36 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.40 |
| 10-08 23:34 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.049 | $0.98 |
| 10-08 23:33 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.071 | $0.64 |
| 10-08 23:33 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.60 |
| 10-08 23:32 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.057 | $1.71 |
| 10-08 23:31 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.077 | $0.85 |
| 10-08 23:30 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.41 |