0x452f632362B5BaE06F4843d35544112F9198a25b-1767905834518
0x452f632362b5bae06f4843d35544112f9198a25b
- Realised P&L
- $-40.48
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $266.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.369 | 0.385 | $266.97 | +$10.95 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? · No | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$83.33 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.00at 0.660US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$48.65at 0.597Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
- +$42.94at 0.600US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$41.16at 0.582Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
- +$-121.18at 0.842US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 10:36 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3799998923 | $1.20 |
| 07-06 10:34 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3691539825 | $254.82 |
| 06-21 23:06 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.7330678359 | $262.49 |
| 05-12 11:53 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.7463143107 | $64.25 |
| 04-17 14:12 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $139.26 |
| 04-08 19:34 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8415902372 | $260.44 |
| 04-08 07:40 | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $107.50 |
| 03-25 18:54 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.6599999996 | $100.94 |
| 03-25 11:25 | Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | SELL | 0.9832045587 | $100.94 |
| 01-14 12:07 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 01-11 11:54 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999971 | $30.00 |