2222yut
0x452cb6cad4ef2c25154d00de6b69e9849d972e1c
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $42.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $656.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.985 | 0.992 | $656.70 | +$4.63 |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 22? · Down | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$198.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.440Spread: Spurs (-11.5)
- +$173.40at 0.507Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?
- +$29.40at 0.100Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$24.34at 0.952Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.99at 0.230Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on January 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 06:27 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $652.07 |
| 07-11 02:02 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $584.73 |
| 07-02 07:03 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $586.56 |
| 06-15 06:30 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.952 | $594.05 |
| 06-10 06:46 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $211.31 |
| 06-10 06:45 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $146.37 |
| 06-10 06:45 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $95.88 |
| 05-15 08:28 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.782 | $454.34 |
| 05-14 01:47 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.782 | $434.79 |
| 05-11 02:36 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.755 | $419.78 |
| 05-04 01:11 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.876 | $208.49 |
| 04-26 08:34 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.8949999999 | $421.54 |
| 03-30 02:39 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $0.54 |
| 03-30 01:23 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $273.60 |
| 03-30 01:22 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $59.05 |