0x451cd933fde813d6f4dea950e4c98d46a54ad976
0x451cd933fde813d6f4dea950e4c98d46a54ad976
- Realised P&L
- $-4.30
- Volume
- $263.90
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $6.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.963 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.380 | $1.52 | +$0.52 |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.400 | 0.580 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.250 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.375 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.23at 0.260Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$5.05at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$3.57at 0.380US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.430Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.52at 0.470Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 18:26 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 09:39 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:16 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:51 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 13:00 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:09 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:59 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:58 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:57 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 03:56 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:46 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:34 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 11:54 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |