PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x45185c19924be749ae26100fcd8aedddf52c25b0

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
210
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded210
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.1700.875$874.99+$704.99
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? · No0.3020.755$555.81+$333.58
Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes0.5500.190$95.00−$179.99
2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes0.0050.001$50.66−$485.18
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? · Yes0.2800.115$46.00−$66.00
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · Yes0.8320.000$0.00−$1.2k
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET · Up0.7400.000$0.00−$148.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET · Up0.8400.000$0.00−$420.00
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET · Up0.3250.000$0.00−$162.62
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? · No0.7700.000$0.00−$770.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET · Down0.8450.000$0.00−$422.65
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET · Down0.4440.000$0.00−$100.00
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$3.07
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? · Yes0.6500.000$0.00−$325.00
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00−$30.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-20 14:06Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20?SELL0.011$11.00
08-19 21:09Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20?BUY0.009$6.16
08-19 19:33Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?BUY0.95$170.71
08-19 19:29Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?BUY0.07981$79.81
08-19 19:25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?BUY0.0882031407$57.01
08-17 11:45Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?BUY0.4722221277$221.94
08-16 22:30Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?SELL0.6422158923$173.60
08-16 22:24Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?BUY0.328$16.40
08-16 22:15Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?SELL0.67$72.79
08-06 01:50Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?BUY0.985$263.79
08-05 01:36US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.73$730.00
08-05 00:20Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.98$392.00
08-05 00:17Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?SELL0.03$15.00
08-01 17:08Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.7996753$399.84
08-01 17:07Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.7975289606$150.77