toxa32145
0x45029924c3aed4221740debc2fa652bc8050c240
- Realised P&L
- $-14.53
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $6.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 15? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.300 | $3.60 | +$0.96 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.120 | $1.80 | +$0.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? · No | 0.276 | 0.080 | $0.96 | −$2.35 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET · Up | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET · Up | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET · Up | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET · Up | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET · Down | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET · Down | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET · Down | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET · Down | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.72at 0.436Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 8PM ET
- +$4.82at 0.260Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
- +$4.20at 0.300Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4PM ET
- +$2.50at 0.553Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9PM ET
- +$1.88at 0.120Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 18:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.80 |
| 10-08 17:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.64 |
| 10-08 17:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.96 |
| 10-08 17:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 10-08 11:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 10-06 18:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7? | SELL | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-06 17:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7? | SELL | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 10-05 20:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.15 |
| 10-05 17:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.19 |
| 10-05 09:55 | Ethereum Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 10-05 00:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 10-04 18:57 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 4? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.08 |
| 10-04 17:54 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 4? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 17:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | SELL | 0.4 | $0.04 |
| 10-04 17:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | SELL | 0.44 | $2.20 |