speex404
0x44fe1a48d94e0ccdfb601f576a05b2f4da8862fe
- Realised P&L
- $-197.48
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $90.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.15at 0.827Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?
- +$10.46at 0.811Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
- +$5.30at 0.847Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?
- +$0.52at 0.903Will Dell say "Tailwind" during earnings call?
- +$0.24at 0.995Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 05:23 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.4513750938 | $18.05 |
| 09-09 20:25 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.4656464124 | $21.61 |
| 09-04 06:06 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 09-04 06:04 | Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.50 |
| 09-03 21:16 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.93 | $14.88 |
| 09-03 09:56 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.539 | $9.70 |
| 09-02 22:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.79 |
| 09-02 21:22 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.249 | $9.96 |
| 09-02 21:03 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 28 and 30 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 09-02 21:03 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 26 and 28 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.60 |
| 09-02 21:03 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.053 | $1.06 |
| 09-02 20:35 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 30 and 32 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.72 |
| 09-02 20:35 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 28 and 30 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.88 |
| 09-02 20:23 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 28 and 30 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.21 |
| 09-02 20:23 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 30 and 32 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |