Loyalty-Crash
0x44d9200a6b0106d041f9460fa84d054736c14c1a
- Realised P&L
- $84.5k
- Volume
- $1.42M
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $157.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.0kat 0.282Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$27.3kat 0.464Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$22.5kat 0.250Trump wins every swing state?
- +$18.7kat 0.694Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$8.8kat 0.754Will J. D. Vance win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 13:05 | Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.2421275279 | $477.35 |
| 11-01 13:03 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $518.62 |
| 11-01 13:02 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.275 | $12.10 |
| 11-01 12:19 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $712.01 |
| 10-30 11:37 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.2043947021 | $187.19 |
| 10-30 11:37 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.1892521004 | $36.72 |
| 10-29 20:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.67 | $154.10 |
| 10-29 20:34 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.67 | $29.48 |
| 10-29 16:24 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.9k |
| 10-29 16:22 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.66 |
| 10-29 15:38 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.42 | $3.8k |
| 10-29 15:35 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.087 | $4.62 |
| 10-29 15:09 | Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.2454601309 | $183.38 |
| 10-29 15:09 | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | BUY | 0.6050291649 | $449.13 |
| 10-24 09:36 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.24 | $274.38 |