BaliCowboy
0x44d71462b07b82d1d9a0fdca4e5e42df3a81ff57
- Realised P&L
- $-334.89
- Volume
- $33.3k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $4.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.006 | $4.96 | −$4.04 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$225.83 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.00at 0.300Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$-0.64at 0.100Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
- +$-1.29at 0.070Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
- +$-5.04at 0.051Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
- +$-6.52at 0.270Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-30 06:30 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 01-30 06:29 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.008 | $8.00 |
| 01-30 06:28 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0081227364 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:27 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0079879506 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:27 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0097087379 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:26 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0086124402 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:26 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0101465451 | $7.00 |
| 01-30 06:23 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0097952787 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:20 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.01 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:18 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0090415913 | $1.00 |
| 01-30 06:16 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.00 |
| 01-30 06:15 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.007353741 | $6.00 |
| 01-30 06:15 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 01-30 06:13 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.009152162 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 06:13 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0090000001 | $1.00 |