0x44ce5dbd854c435a50238614f91ab15c14702626
0x44ce5dbd854c435a50238614f91ab15c14702626
- Realised P&L
- $48.84
- Volume
- $511.88
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $77.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.505 | $33.55 | +$13.55 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.384 | 0.385 | $28.24 | +$0.05 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.295 | $9.28 | −$0.77 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.085 | $6.07 | −$3.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.61at 0.444Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.268Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
- +$-0.14at 0.140Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:46 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $8.19 |
| 10-15 10:46 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $4.04 |
| 10-15 10:46 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $8.19 |
| 10-15 10:46 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.77 |
| 10-15 04:58 | Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3009999988 | $20.00 |
| 10-15 02:53 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.282 | $25.79 |
| 10-15 01:59 | Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $4.29 |
| 10-15 01:57 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2655381367 | $15.00 |
| 10-15 01:57 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.249 | $1.99 |
| 10-15 01:56 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2459985163 | $6.63 |
| 10-14 04:08 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.543999985 | $11.60 |
| 10-14 04:06 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $12.83 |
| 10-14 04:04 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $13.28 |
| 10-13 16:48 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.86 |
| 10-13 16:47 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |