Davidans
0x44c704c4fb630f49961286eb330d8adcfc8b32cb
- Realised P&L
- $-4.7k
- Volume
- $108.9k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.857 | 0.905 | $751.15 | +$39.45 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.308 | 0.365 | $295.58 | +$45.86 |
| Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.460 | 0.460 | $35.41 | +$0.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.139Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
- +$525.39at 0.285Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
- +$287.77at 0.843Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
- +$210.40at 0.660Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$128.29at 0.573Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 23:07 | Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $4.50 |
| 10-08 23:07 | Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $30.90 |
| 10-08 23:01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 10-05 18:05 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.40 |
| 10-05 18:03 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 10-05 18:02 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 10-04 17:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.37 | $20.35 |
| 10-01 21:19 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 10-01 21:14 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.86 | $516.00 |
| 10-01 20:46 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 09-28 14:37 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 09-15 06:58 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.29 | $57.95 |
| 09-14 21:48 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 05-26 01:33 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.904 | $45.11 |
| 05-26 01:28 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.872 | $6.54 |