0x449cf68e6ce332045b02994840b314cc740d075c
- Realised P&L
- $-14.00
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $98.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.826 | 0.920 | $64.74 | +$6.64 |
| Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.765 | $33.89 | −$1.11 |
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.862 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.24 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.59 |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.36at 0.790Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$9.37at 0.622Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.133Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$0.87at 0.748Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 17:58 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $21.74 |
| 09-08 13:55 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999993 | $58.05 |
| 09-07 03:09 | Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.789999981 | $35.00 |
| 08-20 17:28 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999919 | $15.00 |
| 08-20 17:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.604758718 | $15.00 |
| 08-18 20:11 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 16:53 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | SELL | 0.84 | $8.40 |
| 06-18 20:34 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0229999915 | $2.59 |
| 06-18 20:32 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0229999978 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 05:28 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 06-16 17:28 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.862 | $17.24 |
| 06-12 16:03 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $8.00 |
| 06-11 03:14 | Spurs vs. Knicks | SELL | 0.15 | $14.98 |
| 06-11 03:12 | Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.1299999924 | $12.98 |
| 06-06 12:36 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |