nefita
0x448168f6ae93616a647fba1a31a56b52bfc43b06
- Realised P&L
- $-7.63
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $0.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on November 2? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET · Up | 0.246 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 1? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 1? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 1? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.27at 0.691Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?
- +$1.22at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 1?
- +$1.22at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?
- +$1.13at 0.470Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 1?
- +$0.94at 0.522Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 01:53 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 01:47 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on November 2? | BUY | 0.0030824451 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 17:57 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 04:07 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 16:32 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 13:37 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 12:21 | Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 12:18 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 12:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 15:23 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | BUY | 0.8499997025 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 22:39 | Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 20:08 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 20:08 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 15:45 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |