user868
0x447e3858a0aed44e3989558f498834b8b57785fa
- Realised P&L
- $276.69
- Volume
- $52.9k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $55.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.995 | 0.992 | $27.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $12.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.980 | 0.991 | $11.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 7? · No | 0.988 | 0.978 | $2.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$264.60at 0.510Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
- +$13.68at 0.430Knicks vs. Heat
- +$1.23at 0.789Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$1.19at 0.951Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$1.09at 0.570Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 14:04 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.9879999974 | $3.00 |
| 10-06 14:03 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.00 |
| 10-06 14:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9949999829 | $28.00 |
| 09-21 03:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? | BUY | 0.992 | $12.00 |
| 09-21 03:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 14:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9929998441 | $4.00 |
| 08-01 14:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9889999977 | $3.00 |
| 07-27 03:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? | BUY | 0.996 | $7.00 |
| 07-27 03:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28? | BUY | 0.9969999603 | $15.00 |
| 07-05 04:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9929999448 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 04:04 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 04:03 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.00 |
| 06-26 03:07 | Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9759999969 | $5.00 |
| 06-26 03:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? | BUY | 0.8799999956 | $8.00 |
| 06-08 08:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9299997768 | $2.00 |