awfully
0x446a0e2911c0340376dfd9680ffb72280dad294f
- Realised P&L
- $-16.5k
- Volume
- $146.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $12.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.305 | $8.1k | −$1.9k |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.255 | $4.3k | −$735.96 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET · Up | 0.313 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET · Down | 0.765 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$745.70at 0.113Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
- +$491.46at 0.299Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
- +$128.26at 0.476Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
- +$26.50at 0.846Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
- +$11.58at 0.859Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 08:17 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2990123026 | $5.0k |
| 10-24 08:16 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3752782565 | $10.0k |
| 07-19 21:52 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.0706505364 | $3.4k |
| 07-19 20:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.6 | $5.02 |
| 07-19 19:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5974999636 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 18:47 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.415 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 18:33 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.415 | $15.0k |
| 07-17 08:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | SELL | 0.9099398223 | $857.35 |
| 07-17 08:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | BUY | 0.106133018 | $100.00 |
| 07-17 07:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.0934424333 | $31.50 |
| 07-17 07:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.0542910699 | $68.50 |
| 07-17 07:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $694.14 |
| 07-17 07:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.2248473958 | $100.00 |
| 07-17 07:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.3899999982 | $100.00 |
| 07-17 07:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.28 | $12.60 |