PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

needleladder

0x4462e46cf0d31466693058893f4913e2411fbfdf

Realised P&L
$-3.6k
Volume
$482.2k
Markets traded
5,782
Open portfolio
$1.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,782
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? · No0.9200.915$91.50−$0.50
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.8100.785$79.28−$2.52
Will Cameron Skattebo have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.4800.415$66.40−$10.40
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 4? · No0.8900.810$65.61−$6.48
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 3? · No0.5100.435$61.34−$10.57
Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.6900.700$56.00+$0.80
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? · No0.8170.804$41.00−$0.66
Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? · Yes0.8300.785$40.03−$2.29
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government? · Yes0.8800.620$37.82−$15.86
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027? · No0.8100.730$37.23−$4.08
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-09 House election by 35%-40%? · No0.9010.916$33.91+$0.57
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? · Yes0.1700.375$30.00+$16.40
Will Drake Maye have 424.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.7200.670$26.80−$2.00
Will Matt Gay finish as a top-12 K in the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes0.7710.650$26.00−$4.84
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31? · Yes0.5100.315$25.52−$15.79

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 11?BUY0.93$7.44
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 11?BUY0.98$7.84
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 11?BUY0.62$4.96
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 11?BUY0.64$5.12
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 11?BUY0.85$6.80
09-09 11:35Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 11?BUY0.97$7.76
09-09 11:33Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 10?BUY0.98$7.84
09-09 11:33Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 10?BUY0.94$7.52
09-09 11:33Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 10?BUY0.6$4.80
09-09 11:33Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 10?BUY0.48$3.84
09-09 11:33Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 10?BUY0.99$7.92
09-09 11:30Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 10?BUY0.98$9.80
09-09 11:30Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 10?BUY0.94$9.40
09-09 11:30Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 10?BUY0.99$9.90
09-09 11:30Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 10?BUY0.48$4.80