Kallekuhs
0x4459462b1b2e9097835f52eb4f9072d11e15587b
- Realised P&L
- $-35.01
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $1.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.026 | $1.26 | −$13.74 |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.69 |
| Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-28? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.20at 0.431Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$9.82at 0.330Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?
- +$6.19at 0.447Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
- +$5.04at 0.390Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B
- +$4.34at 0.697Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-02 20:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3699999808 | $8.69 |
| 02-28 17:47 | Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 17:45 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.6237499889 | $4.86 |
| 02-28 17:42 | Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | SELL | 0.157 | $4.88 |
| 02-28 17:36 | Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 17:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | BUY | 0.5199999861 | $2.91 |
| 02-28 16:44 | Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-28? | BUY | 0.1479999886 | $10.00 |
| 02-28 16:42 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0287081203 | $2.00 |
| 02-28 16:42 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 16:40 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $4.87 |
| 02-28 16:39 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 16:32 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | BUY | 0.5333333333 | $3.88 |
| 02-28 16:32 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $4.85 |
| 02-28 16:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | BUY | 0.1831324949 | $3.96 |
| 02-28 16:20 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | BUY | 0.6893588954 | $9.77 |