papik159
0x44559f8f69d40819d4cb4d547f85eb47df1d4cd9
- Realised P&L
- $-264.95
- Volume
- $100.7k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $159.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.021 | $98.16 | +$12.61 |
| Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.021 | $61.02 | −$0.13 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? · No | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.59 |
| Valorant: Wolves Esports vs KeepBest Gaming - Map 1 Winner · Wolves Esports | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.91 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.05 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 The Open Championship? · Yes | 0.363 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.18 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Lucas Herbert win the 2026 The Open Championship? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.14 |
| Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$361.91at 0.329Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 The Open Championship?
- +$28.81at 0.062Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,400?
- +$8.22at 0.066Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?
- +$7.69at 0.019Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP?
- +$5.00at 0.590Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:14 | Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.018 | $9.00 |
| 09-18 09:57 | Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.0375917472 | $3.34 |
| 09-18 09:15 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.018 | $1.98 |
| 09-18 08:50 | Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.01439209 | $25.90 |
| 09-18 06:12 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.01 |
| 09-18 06:00 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.67 |
| 09-18 05:42 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? | SELL | 0.048 | $1.26 |
| 09-18 05:24 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.022 | $14.39 |
| 09-18 04:43 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.52 |
| 09-18 04:41 | Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.018 | $1.06 |
| 09-18 04:00 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.018 | $3.79 |
| 09-18 04:00 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.014 | $27.27 |
| 09-18 03:48 | Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.016 | $15.84 |
| 09-17 17:58 | Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | SELL | 0.0374096429 | $4.19 |
| 09-17 17:58 | Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.0444826047 | $2.39 |