0x445164444ec6a7581c0ac20eded04ef25eb8857f
- Realised P&L
- $-15.05
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $212.74
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.978 | $65.90 | +$5.90 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.920 | $59.35 | +$19.35 |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.712 | 0.875 | $49.15 | +$9.15 |
| Will Plasma reach $0.30 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.756 | 0.725 | $38.34 | −$1.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.52at 0.650Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
- +$-0.04at 0.996Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.14at 0.969MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$-1.19at 0.670Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
- +$-2.00at 0.010Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-18 02:42 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999944 | $40.00 |
| 04-18 02:42 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.6908776207 | $42.51 |
| 04-17 23:42 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $40.00 |
| 04-17 23:42 | Will Plasma reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5037228862 | $22.76 |
| 04-17 20:41 | Will Plasma reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8853016288 | $40.00 |
| 04-17 20:41 | Will Plasma reach $0.50 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6422475076 | $29.63 |
| 04-17 17:46 | Will Plasma reach $0.50 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8668029223 | $40.00 |
| 04-17 17:46 | Will Plasma reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4522985989 | $20.66 |
| 04-17 16:46 | Will Plasma reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8755001158 | $40.00 |
| 04-17 16:46 | Will Plasma reach $0.30 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7564819442 | $40.00 |
| 04-17 00:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.995 | $39.96 |
| 04-16 23:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $40.00 |
| 04-16 19:23 | Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7121387253 | $40.00 |
| 04-16 19:20 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $38.80 |
| 04-16 19:05 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999838 | $40.00 |